how many in a village

Running the numbers: how many people will a village support in its lifetime? Around 560 across 32 years

Our colleague Jake Nelson wrote this article on Tuesday in the SOURCE. We thought it may interest you if you missed it.

560 residents pass through a village in its life

As the population continues to age and the baby boomers look to downsize, having a good supply of retirement village and seniors living stock is important to any local council – but a given village may not support as many people over its life as you might think.

Suppose we have a brand-new village that sells out all of its 100 units in its first year. Most villages will turn over its resident population roughly every eight years, and it likely has a lifespan of about 32 years where it still looks good to the market.

In the first year, around 70% of its new residents will be couples and 30% singles, meaning a total population of around 170 people. After eight years, this trend reverses – 30% of new residents will be couples and 70% singles, meaning the next “generation” of residents is around 130. If the same 30/70 split persists, then over the course of its four turnovers of residents, the village will support a total of just 560 people.

All this means that a single retirement village in a local government area is not going to meet that council’s requirements for seniors housing, and the area may need five to 10 villages – or another form of seniors housing that can accommodate more people.

Food for thought!

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